Australia isn't at risk of a US style sub prime crisis, according to Anthony Richards, head of economic analysis at the RBA. This may seem obvious, with the style of loans on offer in Australia and the fact that lending standards are much more stringent than in the US. However, the concern has been raised that with first home buyers grants and record low interest rates, many non-suitable candidates for loans will be 'sucked in' and be unable to meet repayments when rates return to normal levels.
As the article mentions, first-time buyers accounted for a record 26.5 percent of dwellings that were financed in January, up from 18.1 percent a year earlier. Will this mean more defaults? Certainly. Will it mean we will have a sub-prime style crisis? No. These aren't exactly honeymoon rates, and although rates will no doubt return to higher levels, they won't skyrocket in the way sub prime structured loans did in the US. Those were basically loans designed to screw people over and take their homes. Terrible, really.
On another note, the Australian reported yesterday that more dwellings will be constructed in Adelaide next year than in Sydney. You read that right, not on a population/relative basis, but overall. 7500 dwellings are expected to be constructed in Adelaide, with 7300 in Sydney. The gloomy times for the stagnant Sydney property market look set to continue.
DS
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Top fund managers defy the gloomy times
Even though Hedge Funds suffered huge withdrawals and had to deal with a very tough market last year, it seems some have still managed to have considerable success. Previous bull market titans may have dropped off, but some constant names remain. In 2009, with no bottom in sight and no doubt much more disclosure expected from Hedge funds, will we continue to see these huge numbers? The true great managers who trade both sides of the market and offer full disclosure will continue to be successful, but expect to see another overall drop in the industry this year.
Kudo's to John Arnold, the guy is in his 30's! Paulson near the top for the second consecutive year too, the only guy to remain up there. He has truly capitalised on the fallings of the mortgage backed securities market. He recently launched another fund aimed at lending to other investment banks and firms.
DS
Kudo's to John Arnold, the guy is in his 30's! Paulson near the top for the second consecutive year too, the only guy to remain up there. He has truly capitalised on the fallings of the mortgage backed securities market. He recently launched another fund aimed at lending to other investment banks and firms.
2007
DS
Monday, March 9, 2009
Barack Obama - seeing past the marketing hype
Barack Obama. Oh, how everyone loves you, and why shouldn’t they? He is charismatic. He is relatively young, has a great young family, is the first African American President, and offered something completely different to what was currently out there in American politics. Change we can believe in!
You really have to wonder what in the world made everyone in the United States fall for a generic statement of “change” when the only real proposed “change” was to castrate American Capitalism.
I don’t hate Barack Obama. I really do find him charismatic, and I see his appeal to people who are all about the smoke and mirrors of a political campaign. I think it is fantastic that the United States has ushered in a new era by voting in an African American President who is a great symbol of hope – I just wish it wasn’t this guy.
I am also no fan of Bush. His fiscal irresponsibility and lies to the world ruined the reputation of America to the world. Does that mean Obama is any better? No. America unfortunately like most countries will only ever have a President from either of the two major parties. Bush sucked and ruined Republicans, so everyone flipped to the other side of the coin and became Socialist.
Now I have clearly established I am not a racist republican gun-toting redneck, let me discuss what it is I don’t like about him.
Obama has castrated American Capitalism. For a country built on the ideals of free enterprise to suddenly become a country that looks down upon wealth creation and taxes the rich over and over again is heartbreaking. People can go on about Bush’s fiscal irresponsibility all they like – but Obama has already outspent him after 30 days in office. We have just had the biggest stimulus bill (in the history of the world) and the biggest Tax INCREASE (In the HISTORY of the world!) in the midst of a recession! What is Obama thinking? Taxing the rich and businesses is the way out of a recession? That’s like drinking for sobriety!
Obama is perpetuating a mantra of “they will pay”, they being the rich – conveniently forgetting his democrats of yesteryear perpetuated the entire crisis we are now very much blaming on business.
Charitable donations are no longer tax deductible for those earning over 250k per annum in the US. Is this a joke or what? Say goodbye to the many employed in that industry and say goodbye to a LOT of money going to charity.
Mortgage payments are also no longer deductible in that similar bracket. So much for attracting investors to the housing market, you’re just making it more and more expensive!
Another recent bill was passed allowing Judges to re-set mortgage rates to keep people in their homes. If financial and contractual agreements in the United States cannot be honored, they may as well plunge headfirst into the third world.
It seems every time Barack opens his mouth to speak it perpetuates fear in the market and the Dow drops another 300-400 points. He has done nothing to show he has the experience or knowledge to lead America in a time where it needs leadership most.
Businesses will start leaving American shores, keep strangling the Golden Goose and eventually it will die.
America needs a leader with some fiscal responsibility who won’t keep spending like a drunken sailor. Bush more than doubled their deficit and Obama is doing his best to push it further into the red.
This is a sad period for the free market and capitalism. Lets hope the world finally wakes up to itself after one term of this mess.
DS
You really have to wonder what in the world made everyone in the United States fall for a generic statement of “change” when the only real proposed “change” was to castrate American Capitalism.
I don’t hate Barack Obama. I really do find him charismatic, and I see his appeal to people who are all about the smoke and mirrors of a political campaign. I think it is fantastic that the United States has ushered in a new era by voting in an African American President who is a great symbol of hope – I just wish it wasn’t this guy.
I am also no fan of Bush. His fiscal irresponsibility and lies to the world ruined the reputation of America to the world. Does that mean Obama is any better? No. America unfortunately like most countries will only ever have a President from either of the two major parties. Bush sucked and ruined Republicans, so everyone flipped to the other side of the coin and became Socialist.
Now I have clearly established I am not a racist republican gun-toting redneck, let me discuss what it is I don’t like about him.
Obama has castrated American Capitalism. For a country built on the ideals of free enterprise to suddenly become a country that looks down upon wealth creation and taxes the rich over and over again is heartbreaking. People can go on about Bush’s fiscal irresponsibility all they like – but Obama has already outspent him after 30 days in office. We have just had the biggest stimulus bill (in the history of the world) and the biggest Tax INCREASE (In the HISTORY of the world!) in the midst of a recession! What is Obama thinking? Taxing the rich and businesses is the way out of a recession? That’s like drinking for sobriety!
Obama is perpetuating a mantra of “they will pay”, they being the rich – conveniently forgetting his democrats of yesteryear perpetuated the entire crisis we are now very much blaming on business.
Charitable donations are no longer tax deductible for those earning over 250k per annum in the US. Is this a joke or what? Say goodbye to the many employed in that industry and say goodbye to a LOT of money going to charity.
Mortgage payments are also no longer deductible in that similar bracket. So much for attracting investors to the housing market, you’re just making it more and more expensive!
Another recent bill was passed allowing Judges to re-set mortgage rates to keep people in their homes. If financial and contractual agreements in the United States cannot be honored, they may as well plunge headfirst into the third world.
It seems every time Barack opens his mouth to speak it perpetuates fear in the market and the Dow drops another 300-400 points. He has done nothing to show he has the experience or knowledge to lead America in a time where it needs leadership most.
Businesses will start leaving American shores, keep strangling the Golden Goose and eventually it will die.
America needs a leader with some fiscal responsibility who won’t keep spending like a drunken sailor. Bush more than doubled their deficit and Obama is doing his best to push it further into the red.
This is a sad period for the free market and capitalism. Lets hope the world finally wakes up to itself after one term of this mess.
DS
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